For nearly a decade, Russian military support was the cornerstone of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria. However, a dramatic shift occurred in early December 2024, culminating in the fall of Damascus and the reported flight of Assad to Moscow.
On December 4, 2024, a coalition of rebel factions, spearheaded by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched a major offensive in northwestern Syria. Within days, they captured Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city, and advanced toward the capital, Damascus. The rebellion unfolded with surprising speed, culminating in the rebels entering the capital with little resistance from government forces.
HTS, the group leading the charge against Assad, was originally founded in 2012 as the al-Nusra Front (ANF). Initially pledging allegiance to al-Qaeda, it became one of the most formidable factions fighting the Assad regime. In 2016, the Nusra Front severed ties with al-Qaeda and rebranded itself as HTS, merging with other factions.
As crowds gathered in the streets to celebrate the rebels' entry, Russia announced that Assad had stepped down and left the country, though his exact whereabouts remained unknown. The leader of HTS, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, proclaimed, “The future is ours,” signaling a new chapter for Syria.
The events of December 4 marked a significant turning point. Earlier that day, HTS announced their entry into Damascus and the release of prisoners from Saydnaya, Syria's notorious military prison. Shortly thereafter, they declared that “the tyrant Bashar al-Assad has fled.” Reports indicated that Assad had flown out of Damascus to an undisclosed location.
In a video statement, Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jawlani expressed his willingness to cooperate with any leadership elected by the Syrian people. HTS pledged to respect the leadership of the prime minister until an official handover could occur, promising to create a “home for all, including all sects and social classes.”
Despite the initial optimism, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that at least 910 individuals, including 138 civilians, had been killed since the offensive began, highlighting the brutal nature of the conflict.
The Kremlin's reaction to Assad's downfall was swift. Russian officials expressed “extreme concern” over the developments in Syria, signaling a significant setback for Moscow's foreign policy objectives. Since 2015, Russia had invested heavily in supporting Assad, viewing him as a critical ally in the Middle East and a means to assert its global power.
In the wake of Assad's departure, Russian state media began to shift the narrative, suggesting that the Syrian army bore responsibility for the regime's collapse due to their lack of resistance against the rebels. This attempt to deflect blame illustrates the Kremlin's desire to maintain its image and avoid accountability for its role in the conflict.
A key question arising from the fall of Assad is the fate of Russian military bases in Syria, particularly the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base. These installations have been crucial for Russia's military operations and its influence in the Eastern Mediterranean. As the political landscape shifts, the safety and security of these bases remain a priority for Moscow.
Russian state television reported that officials were in contact with representatives of the armed Syrian opposition, who allegedly guaranteed the safety of Russian military assets. However, the Russian Foreign Ministry placed its bases on “high alert,” indicating ongoing concerns about potential threats.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad marks a pivotal moment in Syria's tumultuous history. For over 50 years, the Assad family ruled with an iron fist, but the brutal civil war ignited by Bashar's violent repression of peaceful protests in 2011 has now led to his downfall. The aftermath of this upheaval remains uncertain, with potential power struggles and the emergence of new governance structures on the horizon.
As Syria enters this new chapter, the international community will be watching closely. The implications of Assad's fall extend beyond Syria's borders, influencing regional dynamics and the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. The future of Syria will depend on the ability of its leaders to forge a path toward stability and reconciliation amid the ongoing challenges of civil conflict and external pressures.